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The Secret of Where Good Energy Comes From
Pundits should look at the clear and impressive history of energy technology innovation before latching on to slanted and apocryphal narratives.

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obama_chu.jpgIn the wake of Solyndra's failure, pundits have latched on to a simple, compelling narrative: government can't do energy right.

From synfuels to solar panels to "clean coal" (written, inevitably, with knowing quotation marks), demonstration projects funded by the Department of Energy are described as one failed white elephant after another. Today the DOE is the agency everyone loves to hate (and, at least in Texas Gov. Rick Perry's case, the agency to forget).

What gets left out (and forgotten) is that virtually every one of today's major energy technologies exists thanks to sustained US government investments in research, development, and demonstration. Consider:

To be sure, not every DOE investment has succeeded. But even the projects frequently named as failures were often secret successes.

Take synfuels. After the oil shocks of the 1970s, the US government created the synthetic fuels program. The program worked to produce fuel competitive with oil at $60 a barrel -- the program's objective. But when the price of oil dropped to $10 a barrel in the early 1980s, Congress sensibly abandoned the program. The total amount spent by Congress on SynFuels ended up being just $2 billion -- cheap insurance against future oil embargoes and price shocks, which had sent the United States into a costly recession.

Most people are surprised to learn that the SynFuels program was a success in another way: it led to the development of the technologies today used for coal gasification and carbon capture and storage, which captures coal plant emissions.

Clean coal is ridiculed by greens and libertarians alike as pie-in-the-sky. In fact, carbon capture and storage has been demonstrated around the world. One descendent of SynFuels, Dakota Gasification, is to this day still producing gas and sequestering several million tons of CO2 each year at Weyburn in Canada.

Or consider the case of an abandoned next generation nuclear plant on the Clinch River. The Washington Post singled it out to make a sweeping case against all public investments in advanced energy. What the Post didn't mention is that, since 1949, the U.S. government has successfully demonstrated and tested more than 50 experimental reactor designs at the National Reactor Testing Station (now Idaho National Labs). One of them -- the EBR-II -- ran for 30 years at the testing station and was the technological predecessor to the integral fast reactor (IFR), which is increasingly viewed by experts as promising since it is so efficient, burning conventional nuclear reactor waste as fuel.

Sometimes pundits point to natural gas drawn from shale as an example of how the private sector does the job better. They claim fracking and horizontal drilling were developed by a solitary entrepreneur named George Mitchell in the 1980s. In fact, the key breakthroughs in the development of shale gas technologies occurred thanks to intensive DOE demonstration efforts pursued by President Jimmy Carter, the frequent butt of energy-related jokes, in response to the 1970s oil embargoes.

Look at what industry and independent experts say. "The Department of Energy was there with research funding when no one else was interested," said the head of Julander Energy, a member of the National Petroleum Council, "and today we are all reaping the benefits." A Senior Director at Halliburton said, "In the early 1980s, the industry as a whole did not have a clear vision for producing gas from shales, and benefited from DOE involvement and funding of [electro-magnetic telemetry] EMT technology... there is a clear line of sight between the initial research project and the commercial EMT service available today." Dr. Terry Engelder of Penn State calls the DOE's Eastern Gas Shales Research Program "one of the great examples of value-added work led by the DOE."

In the case of the "shale gas revolution," as in so many examples of breakthrough American innovations, it is this key interplay between public sector research, demonstration, and testing and private sector ingenuity and entrepreneurship that drives major advances in technology.

To be sure, US investments in energy must be reformed. We should stop bluntly subsidizing the deployment of more of the same energy technologies -- whether current-generation wind, solar, biofuels, or nuclear -- and retool energy incentives to demand steady and continual innovation and cost improvements. Firms that out-innovate their competitors with next-generation clean energy improvements should be rewarded, and clean tech industries should put themselves on a clear path to subsidy independence over time. The big story about energy innovation remains unwritten. For most insta-experts on energy, it's easier to just recycle the old one.

By Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger

This post was updated 11/14/2011 at 3:34PM PST.

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TrackBacks (0) 4 COMMENTS:

This commentary reproduces what I call the venture capital mindset, which I see as the real story of Solyndra: an obsession with novel materials and processes "out there" that will someday transition us to a clean energy economy. There is certainly a need to invest in future solar technologies (ARPA-e needs a much larger budget for example), but China is blowing the doors off the US industry with the 40 year old technologies because of supply chain innovations, economies of scale, and learning by doing. The US needed to subsidize old solar technologies, in addition to thin films. But the DOE LG program wasn't conducive to that. (Though it could be argued there should be more emphasis on subsiding clean energy generation, not technologies, industries, and firms.) It would also help if there were less subsidizing of conventional fuels and a stop to granting exemptions to coal (treat flay ash as toxic waste) and natural gas (the real competitor to renewables, which gets numerous regulatory exemptions from the EPA of 2005).

Innovation means low prices relative to conventional generation. We can't lose sight of that. We have renewable energy technologies today that are close to being competitive, particularly with distributed generation and higher tier electricity rates for consumers. Carbon saved today is more important than carbon saved tomorrow. So to "bluntly stop" subsidizing current PV for the sake of plastic and dye sensitized solar cells sounds like a recipe for putting Manhattan under 30 feet of water.

Of course government investment will have some successes: they have a monopoly on the resource known as tax dollars, and through sheer determination some of the boondoggles engaged in by bureaucrats will have some measure of success, but these are not what matter. What matters is first and foremost the fact that the government has to forcibly take those tax dollars from unwilling investors in these firms. What matters next is what those tax dollars would have been spent on instead: things people actually want from producers who have a financial stake in getting things right, which the government has no incentive, since it can always come back to you a stick its hand in your wallet for more tax dollars. What matters thirdly is the dead weight cost of all of the failures and even the lesser successes that would never have even been tried by those gambling their own money. The government gambles your money without fear of losing it, so it tries many more ventures that have much less chance of succeeding. Finally, what matters still is the amount of graft and corruption in a system of publicly financed spending. Even the legitimate successes that occurred most likely came with the additional price tag of bureaucracy and corruption.

So-called "clean coal" is a boondoggle that exists only to capture subsidies. If you are mining coal that is nearly 100% carbon and reburying carbon dioxide that is 27% carbon, you will need a reservoir that is several times larger than the mine you took the coal from. That doesn't exist and never will exist. Then there's the energy spent in capturing and transporting and compressing the CO2. No amount of subsidies can fix a strategy that loses energy on every kilowatt-hour.

>Nuclear power -- including promising small modular reactors, used for 50 years on U.S. submarines -- required intensive government development and investment.

Because U.S. submarines and nuclear reactors have been permitted to be built by non-government groups in the last 50 years?

It's kind of hard, and pointless, to work on nuclear reactors when you'll get arrested if you try.

>Hydro-electric power like the Hoover Dam could not have been built without public funding.

Bullshit. Admittedly, they couldn't have been built without government permission, but they could have been built without government funding. It's kind of hard to build a giant dam across a major river without approval by the government. And they aren't gonna let you just to generate power for yourself.

>Today's wind turbines were pioneered by the United States in the seventies and deployed off-shore thanks to help from the Danish government two decades ago.

Thanks to windmills invented by individuals and used by farmers for hundreds of years.

As for the rest, it's not that non-government people couldn't have done it. In fact, individuals worked on it too. It's more that government funded a bunch, so they got there first.

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