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Without Affordable Clean Alternatives, South Africa Turns to Coal
Until clean and cheap energy sources are available for deployment on a massive scale, developing nations like South Africa will remain stuck in the Development Trap: forced to either sacrifice climate and ecological security in the name of development and poverty alleviation or to condemn countless millions of citizens to energy poverty in the name of climate protection. Breaking out of this untenable position is the urgent challenge of the century. It's time to make clean energy cheap.

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[Update, 4/9/10: According to E&E News ($ubcr. required), the 24 member World Bank board voted to approve the $3.75 billion loan to South Africa, including $3.05 billion to construct a new 4.8 GW supercritical coal-fired power station and additional funding to construct 100 MW of utility-scale wind power and 100 MW of concentrating solar power with energy storage capability.

The United States' representative on the World Bank board abstained from the vote, and the explanation is the clearest example of the multi-faceted challenges of global development and the ways in which energy poverty and climate change objectives remain largely opposed in the absence of clean, affordable, and rapidly scalable energy technology options. According to E&E:

In a statement released just as the 24-member World Bank board started to debate the Eskom loan behind closed doors, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a statement saying its abstention "reflects concerns about the climate impact of the project and its incompatibility with the World Bank's commitment to be a leader in climate change mitigation and adaptation."

Still, the United States noted, it "recognizes South Africa's pressing energy needs and the lack of near-term feasible low-carbon alternatives."

Environmental groups, including the Sierra Club, roundly condemned the World Bank decision, and chastised the U.S. for not voting in opposition. However, there is no indication that viable alternative plans to expand energy access in South Africa without exacerbating the nation's greenhouse emissions were proposed. ]

South Africa's finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, has an op ed in the Washington Post that illustrates the multi-faceted challenges facing developing nations as they struggle to provide the affordable access to modern energy needed to pull citizens out of poverty. The piece highlights the current tension between such objectives and simultaneous concerns about the environmental and climate impacts of energy development.

With South Africa's economy growing rapidly - it's expanded by two-thirds since 1994, when Nelson Mandela first took office - the nation's demand for energy has grown apace. As Gordhan notes, "Millions of previously marginalized South Africans are now on the grid." And that's a very good thing.

Consider that not having access to affordable, modern energy sources, particularly electricity, means no access to potable, running water; it means having to burn dung and wood and other primitive biofuels to provide cooking and indoor heating; and it means sputtering kerosene lamps as the only source of light after the sun goes down.

The human toll of such energy poverty is incredible. According to the World Health Organization, solid fuel use causes 1.6 million excess deaths per year globally, especially among women and children, while waterborne disease is one of the leading global killers, ending the lives of over 3 million annually - again, many of them young children - who lack access to clean and safe water supplies.

Image source: WHO

Don't forget, as well, that the constant time requirements of collecting water and fuel keeps most women and children in energy poor nations locked out of the empowerment and opportunity that comes from a basic education and participation in the trade economy.

It is not an exaggeration to say that energy poverty fuels a cycle of poverty and death that can only be broken through access to affordable sources of modern energy - particularly electricity.

But as the economy has grown and access to modern energy has begun to end the cycle of energy poverty for millions of South Africans, there, "as in other major emerging economies, [energy] supply has not kept pace," Gordhan writes. "To sustain the growth rates we need to create jobs, we have no choice but to build new generating capacity -- relying on what, for now, remains our most abundant and affordable energy source: coal."

And therein lies the dilemma.

Given the challenges of financing major capital projects like power plants in the midst of the Great Recession, South Africa and the national utility, Eskom, have turned to the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the European Investment Bank for assistance in financing new electric power stations. But their $3.75 billion loan request to the World Bank ($3b for a major new coal-fired power plant and $750m for new wind and solar facilities) now "faces stiff opposition," according to Gordhan. The reason? Concerns about the effect of new coal-fired power plants on the destabilizing climate.

Gordhan explains:

South Africa takes climate change and the need to reduce fossil fuel emissions extremely seriously. ... If there were any other way to meet our power needs as quickly or as affordably as our present circumstances demand, or on the required scale, we would obviously prefer technologies -- wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear -- that leave little or no carbon footprint. But we do not have that luxury if we are to meet our obligations both to our own people and to our broader region whose economic prospects are closely tied to our own. South Africa generates more than 60 percent of all electricity produced in sub-Saharan Africa. Tight supplies are not just a problem for us.

The simple fact is, without access to clean and cheap energy sources, developing nations like South Africa will continue to turn to coal. They must, as the challenges of ending energy poverty and pulling millions of their citizens out of poverty demands it.

As I've written before, until clean and cheap energy sources are available for deployment on a massive scale, developing nations like South African will remain stuck in the Development Trap: forced to either sacrifice climate and ecological security in the name of development and poverty alleviation or to condemn countless millions of citizens to energy poverty in the name of climate protection.

Breaking out of this untenable position is the urgent challenge of the century. The only way out of the Development Trap, and the only route to sustainable development and an end to pervasive energy poverty is to make clean energy cheap. On that front, the world can't afford to delay.

Anything else is ultimately counter-productive, ineffective, or even cruelly unjust, a point that Minister Gordhan appears keenly aware of:

A question that has to be faced is whether stunting growth prospects in our region will in any way serve the goal we all share of eliminating greenhouse gas emissions over the long term. Whatever paths we take toward that goal, whether shifting to renewables and nuclear, or finding ways to keep harmful gases out of the atmosphere once created, the journey will inevitably be costly, requiring massive investments in technology, research and re-engineering the ways in which we live and do business. It will also require a true spirit of consensus and collaboration.

Neither of these requirements will be well served by hampering the transitional measures that developing countries like ours need to take to get themselves on sustainable growth tracks and generate the resources they need to play their part in preserving our planet.


We must make clean energy cheap. There is no time to waste.

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TrackBacks (0) 10 COMMENTS:

I read and enjoyed your article about South Africa's 'making clean energy cheap' dilemma and wrote about it on my blog The Alternative Energy Page.
http://rcbrothers1.wordpress.com/2010/03/24/making-clean-energy-cheap/

Of about 100 pages of press coverage on this issue since mid-February, this is the most naive I've seen. The low-income users of electricity in South Africa use less than 5%. This power plant is NOT for poor South Africans, its for the biggest mining and metals houses in the world, which have been getting the world's cheapest electricty. How could Jesse have missed that most basic fact? That's why more than 200 groups around the world - and more than 60 in South Africa - are trying to stop it.

Patrick, the fact that low-income users use only 5% of the electricity in South Africa is exactly the point, isn't it? That's precisely the picture that we should want to see change (as incomes rise and access to modern energy expands). That will require both growing economic opportunities and much more electricity, does it not? I don't claim to be an expert on the context surrounding this particular project, but the challenge of expanding access to affordable and clean energy is emblematic of the broader sustainable development challenges facing the global community in the 21st century. Starving developing nations of energy solves nothing.

The main issue with the loan is that while poor people have to pay extremely high rates for electricity, big polluters like mining companies and Aluminum smelters (run mostly by foreign companies) have sweetheart deals with Eskom for extremely cheap electricity. The "development trap" doesn't really apply here--it's industry taking advantage of a corrupt regulatory system. That's why at 350.org, we've been working with over 100 civil society groups to fight this unjust World Bank loan to Eskom (see http://350.org/eskom).

* In 2009, Eskom raised tariffs 31.3% in order to maintain coal supplies after a series of brownouts. They will continue to increase rates at 25% annually over the next 3 years, raising prices nearly 300% on the poorest.


* Electricity price increases obviously impact on disposable income and food prices, and this will mean particular hardship for poor households.


* Recent studies show that renewables may become cheaper than coal energy in South Africa within the next 3-5 years -- this includes 40GW of solar-thermal baseload capacity and 10.5GW wind in the pipeline right now.


This is all to say that it's not quite as simple as a "choice between clean energy and development." There are, in fact, viable alternatives to building massive, toxic, polluting coal plants in South Africa using technology that is already available. The first step is to address energy poverty by canceling cheap energy contracts for industry and increasing access to electricity for the poor.

Thanks for the information Phil. I'm not saying S.Africa should be building new coal plants. I'm saying we need clean and affordable alternatives and we need them quickly.



So what's your proposed alternative? How do we advance "baseload" solar thermal (which isn't really baseload BTW, without pretty massive energy storage systems or co-location with natural gas or coal-fired turbines) and wind and the likely expansion of transmission needed to make that work in an affordable and timely manner that precludes the need for new coal-fired stations? And if low-cost electricity contracts are canceled for aluminum smelters and other industry, what does that do for S.Africa's economic development and employment and income prospects for S.African citizenry?

This all strikes me as a tad more complicated, but I'm not an expert on the particulars of this proposed plant. It just struck me as emblematic of the complex challenges we face that are hardly as cut and dry as we might hope. Cheers,

Jesse

Right now, South Africa right now has one of the highest per-capita CO2 emissions levels in the developing world: http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&ctype=l&met_y=en_atm_co2e_pc&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:USA:ZAF:CHN:IND:BRA:CAN:AUS&hl=en_US&dl=en

But most of that energy is going to industrial, not residential use. An aging feet of coal plants, combined with an apartheid-era coal-to-liquids facility are the major contributors.

We're both pretty well acquainted with the options for reducing demand for energy, as well as the opportunities to put together a portfolio of renewables that could function more or less like baseload electrical capacity. I'm not an expert on that piece, but I know that the technologies are there.

What is particularly galling here is that Eskom is using the argument that "South Africa needs coal for development" as an excuse to provide foreign-owned industries with bargain basement priced electricity, while 88% of urban and 55% of rural South Africans don't have access to electricity -- and many of those who do can't afford to use it.

Add that to the fact that the ruling ANC has direct financial investments in those companies that would benefit from the cheap electricity, and you have a full-fledged mess.

Thanks Phil. This is clearly a complex situation, and I'm not saying Eskom has the best plan to move forward. What I'm trying to draw attention to is the broader complexity of challenges inherent in the intersection of development, energy poverty and climate change.



For a country where energy poverty is widespread, as we agree is the case in South Africa, efficiency doesn't preclude the need for MUCH more energy. In the context of rapidly developing nations, we can talk about the most efficient EXPANSION of energy supplies and economic well-being, but clearly an absolute reduction in energy usage isn't in the cards. They'll need a LOT more energy, and if we don't want to sacrifice climate and environmental goals, we need it to be clean, and if we don't want to sacrifice economic development and poverty alleviation goals, we need it to affordable. Clean, affordable, and abundant. That's the core point I'm trying to raise. While Eskom may not have the best plan to further any of those goals, South Africa's case is emblematic of those interlocking challenges.



When it comes to balancing a renewables-only grid, the technologies "are there" in the sense that they physical exist and are known. The question is if they are affordable and readily scalable in a timely manner to meet expanding energy needs. That remains an open question and is not a trivial matter.



Thanks for the additional information about Eskom's plans. Much appreciated. Cheers,

Jesse

In a document submitted to the World Bank in response to the Bank's questions regarding their loan application, the South African government responded on the issue of tariff rates for low-income residents. The response is pasted below (I should also note for reference that industrial utility rates in the United States are also routinely lower than residential utility rates, often roughly half the residential rate).



World Bank asks: "Will the Medupi project result in higher electricity rates for low- and/or middle- income households while subsidizing rates for industrial customers?"



South African govt. responds:For poor indigent households, the national fiscus provides a multi-billion rand subsidy in order to provide 50kw hours per month of free basic electricity in line with government�s commitment.



For residential customers supplied directly by Eskom the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has introduced an Inclining Block Tariff in areas with low income households (Home-light Tariff). This tariff and its structure will benefit low income households and generally result in a reduction in tariffs to these customers. For example, a customer with a 1000kWh consumption a month would see a total price reduction of 27.28c/kWh for 350kWh and an increase of 19.63c/kWh for the remaining 650kWh. A customer using approximately 800 kWh per month would not be affected by the tariff increase.



As the majority of the Home-light monthly per customer consumption is lower than 350kWh, the under-recovery of revenue that results from this tariff structure means that a cross-subsidy in the form of higher tariffs for other classes of consumers occurs. Sales directly by Eskom to residential customers accounts for 5% of Eskom sales.



There is a common misconception that industrial customers are subsidised by residential customers, justified by comparing the average prices paid between the two customer categories. However, one cannot directly compare the two values as the cost to supply all customers is not the same i.e. the cost to supply an average industrial customer is significantly less than the cost to supply a residential customer.



When using the average price of electricity for different customer categories, it is important to understand the electricity supply cost chain and where exactly in this chain the different customers take their supply. Smaller users of electricity have much higher costs per kWh than larger users for the following reasons:



-> Typically a residential customer is supplied on the network at a low voltage whereas a large industrial customer would be supplied on the network at a high voltage. This means that many more electrical networks have to be built, maintained and operated to supply smaller customers than that which is required for larger customers on higher
voltage networks.

-> More electrical losses occur at the lower voltages as the electricity has
to travel further distances.

-> As a ratio of overall consumption, smaller customers also tend to use much more electricity in the more expensive peak periods.

-> Smaller customers have a poorer load factor (use electricity inconsistently during the day) than larger customers. This means that their average cost of electricity per kWh is higher than that of a larger customer who uses electricity more evenly throughout the day.



In summary:(This is Jesse writing again, not a quote)
Up to 50 kWh per month are free for low-income/poor residential customers. Beyond that, residential rates are tiered, offering lower rates for those who use less energy and higher rates for those who consumer larger amounts of energy, both effectively subsidizing rates for low/mid-income customers and providing an incentive for conservation. Industrial rates are indeed lower than residential rates (as is routine for all utilities), a fact that on its own does not reflect the "subsidization" of industrial rates by residential customers.

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it is important to understand the electricity supply cost chain and where exactly in this chain the different customers take their supply. Smaller users of electricity have much higher costs per kWh than larger users for the following reasons:

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