A pre-condition for each company receiving additional federal funds be its commitment to have produced and offered for sale 60,000 new plug-in vehicles by the end of 2011.
By Felix Kramer
Developments in Washington have become "fast and furious." From day to day, it appears Congress (especially but not only Republicans) may be insufficiently receptive to steps to keep the Detroit Three alive.
Many are focusing more on blame for past mis-steps than on a responsible appreciation of the consequences for communities and for our green automotive future if these companies go under. We hope that this turns out to be brinkmanship and that Congress will in fact act next week. (If they ignore the crisis, attitudes reflected in aphorisms like, "they made their own bed" or "let them stew in their own juices" -- or "what, me worry?" will prove to be short-sighted.)
The California Cars Initiative (CalCars.org) developed what follows as a contribution to an effort by a number of organizations to provide Washington lawmakers with specific conditions for additional federal aid to automakers. We're not suggesting this is the only criterion -- and we hope that the issue actually does come before Congress.
Next week the U.S. auto industry will fight for its life in the chambers and hallways of Congress. No one who recognizes the industry's central position -- and the lives and livelihoods that depend on its continuation -- wants to see any of the Detroit Three fail. They need immediate life support -- and a medium- and long-term way to return to growth and prosperity.
Setting a 2012 Milestone for the Detroit Three
The electrification of transportation can give them that roadmap. Electricity -- cheaper, cleaner, and domestically sourced -- addresses our intersecting challenges of economics, environment and energy security. We believe most future cars will be hybrids. Within that, a rapidly growing proportion will plug-in. And many households' second cars will be highway-capable all-electric.
President-elect Obama has a strong platform for plug-in cars: his goals are most White House vehicles within a year, half of federal purchases by 2012, and one million on the nation's roads by 2015.
Majority Leader Reid and House Speaker Pelosi agree. Their November 8 letter to Treasury Secretary Paulson called urgently for action to "restore the preeminence of our domestic manufacturing industry so that it can emerge as a global, competitive leader in fuel efficiency and in new and path-breaking energy-efficient technologies that protect our environment."
That call, for "new" and "green" automotive technologies, best fits plug-in cars. That technology is available and meets all criteria. Plug-in cars will be sold globally in 2010-2012. No other solution is as scalable, as low in greenhouse gases, and as independent of requirements for new infrastructure or invention. No other solution is modular, upgradable, and fully compatible with improvements in engine technology and with all low-carbon liquid fuels, as they become available, for range extension.
We believe the President's 2015 goal is achievable -- and if anything, could be surpassed.
Who will be the customers? Almost half are already accounted for: 250,000 buyers eligible for tax credits under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (the $700 billion bailout bill) and 130,000 from 50% of federal 2012-2015 fleet purchases. There will be no shortage of buyers for clean, powerful, quiet and economical plug-in cars from the consumer, business and fleet customers who buy over one million vehicles a month.
Can the automakers meet the timetables? One U.S. manufacturer is already on schedule to produce tens of thousands of Chevy Volts and Saturn Vues in 2011. GM alone could realistically supply more than one third of that million vehicles four years later. When Ford and Chrysler step up, they can bring the number to 500,000. And international manufacturers are certain to match these levels to reach a million. To those new passenger vehicles, we can add 40,000 plug-in school buses replaced annually and hundreds of thousands of transit buses and other commercial vehicles. Finally, we expect to see significant numbers of conversions of hybrids and gasoline vehicles already on the road. That's why the million-vehicle target can be significantly exceeded.
Can automakers design and produce the cars in time? The Volt is going from announcement to mass production in less than four years -- and it's an entirely new design. This timetable can be accelerated for PHEVs that are line extensions of existing vehicle types: the Ford Escape Hybrid, Ford Fusion Hybrid, the Chrysler Town & Country Minivan and the Jeep Wrangler. It's reasonable that these vehicles can be in mass production by late 2011.
Can the suppliers deliver components in time? No one suggests this is impossible for power electronics, motors, or control software. And while the expansion of global battery capacity, and the establishment of a substantial domestic manufacturing capability, will cost billions of dollars, the battery industry is prepared to commit if demand is certain. GM is confident that today's batteries are good enough to get started toward mass production; further improvements will be icing on the cake.
What will it take? Agreement by the Detroit Three to work to meet and exceed President-elect Obama's goals. We propose that a pre-condition for each company receiving additional funds be its commitment to have produced and offered for sale 60,000 new plug-in vehicles by the end of 2011. We hope that the response of the automakers will be "that's what we're already planning," and that the proposal will be welcomed.
Felix Kramer is Founder of The California Cars Initiative, (CalCars.org) and a member of the Breakthrough Institute Advisory Board
. . . and what are you going to do if they take your money and then don't make the cars? or if they just make really crappy electric cars that won't sell? If you can't let these companies go under now, you won't be able to do so in a few years. Are you going to spend more tax money for rebates so people will buy inferior cars from GM, Ford, and Chrysler? None of these companies have kept any of their promises to consumers or shareholders for years.
Posted by: Robert L. www.neolibertarian.com at November 18, 2008 11:07 PM