Now, to Refine the Energy Solution.
Climate change, economic revival, energy abundance: these are big challenges. But we need a more sophisticated plan than "take everything we can get!"
by Helen Aki, Breakthrough Generation Fellow
There's a simple relationship between energy and civilization: more
energy means more activity, growth, and prosperity. The defining
challenge of our era is to think responsibly about how we use energy,
as we strive to meet the demands of developing nations, struggle with a
failing economy, and mitigate climate change.
Part of the problem is that we've taken energy for granted. Energy
fuels everything we do. But we've outgrown our youthful years of
abundant oil, as a nation and as a planet. Richard Smalley estimated in 2004
that if the world population were to stabilize at 10 billion people,
they would demand 60 terawatts of energy in order to live prosperous,
secure lives--more than four times what we currently use. At the same
time, the oil that drove America's progress is becoming less and less
viable as an energy source. It is becoming increasingly clear that
the most sophisticated and effective option is not to simply throw more
energy, any energy, at the problem(s). So what now?
1. The economic problem
The price of crude oil has fallen 18% since its $147.27 high in
July, and Americans have driven 4% less this year than last year,
causing some to (dubiously) link high oil prices to lower demand. But
lower gas prices don't necessarily signify a reprieve: economically,
socially or politically. Since demand for oil is inelastic, its
decrease implies that overall economic activity has slowed. As Colin Barr wrote for Fortune
magazine on Monday, "falling oil prices also suggest that the recession
the U.S. has so far avoided is well on its way." Instead of real
rejuvenation, these accounts of America's constrained access to oil
bear a closer resemblance to what happens if you cut off a person's air
supply: they first protest, then grow acquiescent and sluggish, and
finally slump to the ground.
Witnessing this desperate struggle, both Presidential candidates
look to American petroleum reserves, reasoning that even if modestly
expanding domestic oil production won't really reduce at-the-pump
prices, it will tide us over until we find something that will. To oppose drilling is to place limits on the American economy, a politically tenuous proposition. As Lawrence Kudlow writes,
The public is putting aside global warming and choosing instead
new-energy production, a stronger economy, and more job creation.
Voters want growth, not austerity. They want Ronald Reagan, not Thomas
Malthus.
This sounds reasonable. Energy is the driving force of civilization. When there is more energy, there is more growth, more progress, more prosperity. Since oil equals energy, and we need all the energy we can get, then, drill away!
2. "New energy production," the old way
As renewable energy proponents, our argument goes something like
this: Sure, drill for more oil, but doing so will just expand the
liability of dependence on an energy source grown obsolete. While
oil may be energy, not all energy is oil: what we need are clean, cheap
sources of new, renewable energy, scaled to replace and out-pace fossil
fuels, and flexible enough to meet the needs of our civilization.
Yet our justification for clean-energy deployment often sounds
remarkably similar to the argument for offshore drilling: we need
everything we can get. It makes sense. Between replacing fossil fuels
and mitigating climate change, and the idea that we might need "eighteen wedges"
of positive climate projects, the challenge is sufficiently
intimidating for us to to fall back on demanding "everything we can
get...(but probably not coal or oil, except maybe China can use coal)."
Not only do we need a plethora of sustainable new energy
technologies, we also need to deploy ready-to-go, interim technologies,
like nuclear power plants and carbon capture and storage, in order to rapidly wean us from coal and oil and propel us into a new century of energy use. Sound familiar? It's
just a temporary fix, but it will save us from economic recession and
social disruption in the short-term, while we figure out what to do
with ourselves.
But "taking everything we can get" is neither the only nor the best option available to us.
3. Make every joule count
As a mature society, we need to start behaving as if every joule counts--not
stingy, but smart. Streamlining the way we use energy may not be as
exciting as simply finding lots more energy to use, but as the old
adage goes, "A penny saved is a penny earned." Voters may prefer growth to austerity, but these are not mutually exclusive qualities.
Call it "efficiency" instead of "austerity" if it sounds better, but if
it's implemented in the right places, maximizing efficiency stimulates,
not stifles, growth.
The Japanese understand this better than most. Efficient production
means cheaper goods, and can provide an economic advantage. Taiichi
Ohno (1912-1990), who created the Toyota production system, pioneered
the use of a conceptual framework around the elimination of muda,
the Japanese term for waste or purposelessness. At the time, Toyota was
on the verge of bankruptcy, and couldn't afford to spend money on new
equipment or large quantities of parts. Ohno understood that energy
used to produce muda, rather than the end product, was
detrimental to the functioning of a business. He set about removing
muda from all aspects of production--not just from putting parts
together, an accomplishment exemplified by the assembly line of the Ford Model T, but from all aspects. (For more about Ohno's philosophy, see my extended version of this post.)
The same rigorous inspection of all elements of production, with an
understanding of the system as a whole, can be applied to society as a
whole in order to maximize economic gains. However, it is important to
strike a balance. Since so much energy goes into production, the
greatest efficiency gains are achieved "downstream," e.g. at the
consumer. This is why efficiency measures are so frequently construed
as antithetical to economic growth, since simply "consuming less"
obviously reduces energy demand, but also reduces economic activity.
I've grown up with such a "downstream savings" attitude, and
personally, I think it's a good idea to generally "use less," but
there's certainly less money to be made from doing so. The
profitability comes in a little further upstream, from efficiency retrofits
such as installing combined heat-and-power (CHP) on industrial
factories, and other money-saving efficiency measures. These measures
are far enough downstream that they demand vastly decreased energy
inputs, but high enough upstream that they place no constraints on
economic activity. The key here is strategy: the right measure in the
right place can nurture growth. This is a much more sophisticated
approach than sucking up all the oil we can find.
4. The future
Mitigating climate change, maintaining economic stability, and meeting the terawatt challenge
(the capacity to generate 60 terawatts to sustain prosperity for a
stable population of 10 billion): these are the problems that
21st-century America, and the world, must now confront. Depending on
how you approach them, some attempts at solutions sound better than
others. If you prioritize widespread energy availability, it might not
make sense to break from coal and oil just yet. If climate change seems
more urgent, then we should move away from fossil fuels at all costs.
These overlapping but conflicting perspectives have mostly served to
hinder progress.
What America needs to do is make the right choices. Increasing the supply of energy is only meaningful
if we also improve how we use energy. Think of our path to the future
as a river dotted with stepping stones: we've got to cross, but it will
be much more effective if we take the right steps. Efficiency retrofits
are part of improving the system. So are new high-voltage transmission lines for renewable electricity and an updated smart grid; electrifying personal transport and railroads; large-scale federal investments in research, development, demonstration and deployment of clean energy; internalizing the cost of carbon in the form of a cap and carbon credits; preparing the next generation for our energy future.
Over the past 10 weeks, we have been talking about and identifying a number of "next steps" to take. I think it's time we start taking them.
Some people suggest that consumers, particularly those who own cars, need to commute in public vehicle instead of using their own cars, because according to them, this is one way of saving gas/oil. Somehow, this is a good idea. But do you think, all consumers will agree and do the same thing? Some people find it costly on commuting in public vehicle, what they prefer is to travel with their own car, since it is more efficient and comfortable to travel wherever they want to. Oil/gas price is just one of the effects that has been brought by economic recession. But, the United States of America isn't the only nation affected by the recession, and we don't have the only people in the world heading for the cover of payday loans. Our neighbors in the Great White North, the Canadians, are getting shaken up about it too, at the governmental level. It is easy to forget just how closely tied our economy is to theirs, since they are one of our most significant partners in international trade. The effects of the recession have thrown their government in turmoil, and it is creating a political crisis. The conservative headed government has been racked with partisan problems, with the liberal coalition refusing to cooperate with the Prime Minister. As the other party's members in Parliament are completely unwilling to work with him, they were headed towards a vote of No Confidence. In order to stem the partisan quibbling, the Prime Minister sought, and received, a suspension of Parliament from the head of Parliament, the Governor General. This action, called prorogation, is a rare thing to see, and it has been decades since it was last called for. The Prime Minister did this in order to give him time in order to get a working plan together to weather this crisis. Bear in mind that we here in America aren't the only ones that have been affected by recession and tougher times, but just like in Canada, we have the option of payday loans in times of sudden financial need. Click here to read more on payday loans.
Posted by: Lisa O at December 11, 2008 8:39 AM