China and India will develop sustainably only to the extent that we invest in their development.
A new IEA report says we need a massive global investment in clean energy development and deployment if we want to avoid catastrophic climate change. From AP:
The study said that an average of 35 coal-powered plants and 20 gas-powered power plants would have to be fitted with carbon capture and storage equipment each year between 2010 and 2050.
In addition, the world would have to construct 32 new nuclear power plants each year, and wind-power turbines would have to be increased by 17,000 units annually. Nations would have to achieve an eight-fold reduction in carbon intensity -- the amount of carbon needed to produce a unit of energy -- in the transport sector.
That's a tall order. Where would the money come from? Dolf Gielen, an IEA energy analyst and leader for the project, had some thoughts:
Gielen said most of the $45 trillion forecast investment -- about $27 trillion -- would be borne by developing countries, which will be responsible for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
If we are to reduce emissions enough to avert catastrophic global warming, it must indeed be a global effort. And while it seems logical to divvy up the responsibility to invest based on the amount a country emits, this ends up saddling developing nations with the majority of the cost. Developed nations are responsible for most of the carbon emissions that drove atmospheric carbon concentration from 280 ppm to 380 ppm. But if we continue the trajectory we're on, it will be developing nations that drive us over 450 ppm, and developing nations that have to bear most of the burden of mitigation. Not a great deal for the developing world.
Developed nations have the responsibility and the means to take on the lion's share of emissions reductions. We need to invest in the "enabling technologies" that make renewable energy feasible from San Francisco to Shanghai.
China and India don't have much incentive to get off coal -- it may not be a perfect energy source, but it's allowing them to bring more people out of poverty more quickly than the world has ever seen. They will develop sustainably only to the extent that we invest in their development.
