Gallup just released a study of public opinion on global warming broken down by party. The study concluded:
There has been a slight increase in the percentage of Americans who view global warming as already happening, and a more substantial increase in the percentage who believe that a majority of scientists think global warming is occurring, with the result that more than 6 in 10 Americans endorse both views (61% and 65%, respectively). There has also been a sizable increase in the percentage saying global warming will pose a serious threat within their lifetimes, although it is still a minority position at 40%. In contrast, there has been only a slight increase in the percentage saying the seriousness of global warming has been exaggerated, as just over a third of Americans currently express this view. Finally, there has been virtually no change in the percentage agreeing that global warming is due more to human activities, with 6 in 10 Americans holding this view.
What these trends often mask, however, are highly divergent trends among Republicans and Democrats. As noted above, the proportions of Democrats agreeing that global warming is already happening, that most scientists believe it is occurring, and that it will pose a serious threat in their lifetimes have increased substantially over the past decade. At the same time, the proportions of Republicans agreeing that most scientists believe global warming is occurring and that it poses a serious threat have both increased, but more modestly than is true among Democrats, while the proportion of Republicans agreeing that global warming is already happening has declined a bit.
The proportion of Republicans who believe news of global warming's seriousness is exaggerated has grown substantially over the past decade, while the proportion of Democrats expressing this view has been fairly steady. A similar pattern of diverging partisan views has also occurred on the issue of attributing global warming to human activities.
The result of these trends is that there are currently stark differences in Republicans' and Democrats' views of global warming. The claim that environmental protection would be a "motherhood" issue that would unite the nation, commonly made in the early 1970s, has clearly not come to pass -- particularly when it comes to global warming.
The point about the environment failing to become a "motherhood" issue is particularly poignant - and sobering. It would be great if the American public suddenly lurched from global warming apathy to activism, but there isn't much evidence that that's happening. The disparity between Republicans and Democrats aside, you still need a majority to get things done in a democracy, and when it comes to demanding strong action to raise energy prices, we're a long ways off. Public opinion being where it's at, dangling the threat of stranded polar bears and desertification is unlikely to have much swaying power.
Luckily, a big shift in public opinion is not a prerequisite to stopping global warming. Studies like these remind us that we need to frame policy solutions in terms of things people do care about: energy independence, jobs, and national security, to name a few. Ultimately, it needs to be about making a long-term investment to drive down the price of clean energy - a solution that's a lot more appealing to people than making dirty energy expensive as a punishment or a disincentive.
These are the proverbial chickens coming home to roost. Both the environmental and industry communities have ignored significant public education on energy all these years. If the public had been better educated all along, we might not be in this fix now.
Posted by: R Margolis at June 1, 2008 2:44 PM